Regarding the playbook, apart from the stock market and investments, personally, I wouldn't want to spend the next 90 days hovering over Truth Social or X/Twitter. I might pay a bit of attention to sights like yours or comments from the likes of Warren Buffet. Watching portforlios of ETFs and mutual funds is one other strategy I use. I also don't place loss/stops and only very occasionally sell in a bear market. Other than that, I agree with four of your excellent reminders:
"Don’t place big bets on market direction."
"Sell into rallies—buy the dip, sell the rip."
"Simplify your portfolio so you understand what you have."
"Remember that bear markets return stocks to their rightful owners—don’t give yours away."
Apart from this, I believe in investing in US manufacturing. I don't mind taking a moderate loss to stay the course on US manufacturing stocks. From my perspective, ON Semi, Photronics, and Allegro Microsystems have declined, but only by about 30% since the peak last summer. They make real things, and will be there for the long haul. Apart from these current favorites, I'm also looking at picking up Abbott Laboratories and ARM as they dip low on the daily fluctuations of the market.
Thanks for the great write up. Liked the analysis on treasuries and the deep dive into the US/global economy since WWII.
Thanks for the detailed response. I appreciate it. Stop loss, to me, is just a way to bracket returns. I don't fall in love with securities. But you have to have a plan to get back in if you have a plan to get out. Your bias is bottoms up because you are qualified to know about the stocks you own. I have more of a top-down approach. It is less satisfying. Right now, though, there are so many top-down influences that can overrun a bottoms-up approach I don't feel it is worth my doing the work. I sold a whole portfolio that I took away from JP Morgan earlier this year: about 75 positions in stocks and ETFs. I took the gains because I have some losses from the prior year that I can carry forward. My wife asked me how that worked out. Prices today, on average, are about 8% lower than when I sold, including the price run-up on Coca-Cola and McDonald's. 75 positions is too many to manage. It's T-Bills 70%, precious metals and miners 30%. I will wait to see how this craziness develops.
fascinating macro breakdown
Excellent analysis.
Regarding the playbook, apart from the stock market and investments, personally, I wouldn't want to spend the next 90 days hovering over Truth Social or X/Twitter. I might pay a bit of attention to sights like yours or comments from the likes of Warren Buffet. Watching portforlios of ETFs and mutual funds is one other strategy I use. I also don't place loss/stops and only very occasionally sell in a bear market. Other than that, I agree with four of your excellent reminders:
"Don’t place big bets on market direction."
"Sell into rallies—buy the dip, sell the rip."
"Simplify your portfolio so you understand what you have."
"Remember that bear markets return stocks to their rightful owners—don’t give yours away."
Apart from this, I believe in investing in US manufacturing. I don't mind taking a moderate loss to stay the course on US manufacturing stocks. From my perspective, ON Semi, Photronics, and Allegro Microsystems have declined, but only by about 30% since the peak last summer. They make real things, and will be there for the long haul. Apart from these current favorites, I'm also looking at picking up Abbott Laboratories and ARM as they dip low on the daily fluctuations of the market.
Thanks for the great write up. Liked the analysis on treasuries and the deep dive into the US/global economy since WWII.
Thanks for the detailed response. I appreciate it. Stop loss, to me, is just a way to bracket returns. I don't fall in love with securities. But you have to have a plan to get back in if you have a plan to get out. Your bias is bottoms up because you are qualified to know about the stocks you own. I have more of a top-down approach. It is less satisfying. Right now, though, there are so many top-down influences that can overrun a bottoms-up approach I don't feel it is worth my doing the work. I sold a whole portfolio that I took away from JP Morgan earlier this year: about 75 positions in stocks and ETFs. I took the gains because I have some losses from the prior year that I can carry forward. My wife asked me how that worked out. Prices today, on average, are about 8% lower than when I sold, including the price run-up on Coca-Cola and McDonald's. 75 positions is too many to manage. It's T-Bills 70%, precious metals and miners 30%. I will wait to see how this craziness develops.