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Daria Cupareanu's avatar

fascinating macro breakdown

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Marnie's avatar

Excellent analysis.

Regarding the playbook, apart from the stock market and investments, personally, I wouldn't want to spend the next 90 days hovering over Truth Social or X/Twitter. I might pay a bit of attention to sights like yours or comments from the likes of Warren Buffet. Watching portforlios of ETFs and mutual funds is one other strategy I use. I also don't place loss/stops and only very occasionally sell in a bear market. Other than that, I agree with four of your excellent reminders:

"Don’t place big bets on market direction."

"Sell into rallies—buy the dip, sell the rip."

"Simplify your portfolio so you understand what you have."

"Remember that bear markets return stocks to their rightful owners—don’t give yours away."

Apart from this, I believe in investing in US manufacturing. I don't mind taking a moderate loss to stay the course on US manufacturing stocks. From my perspective, ON Semi, Photronics, and Allegro Microsystems have declined, but only by about 30% since the peak last summer. They make real things, and will be there for the long haul. Apart from these current favorites, I'm also looking at picking up Abbott Laboratories and ARM as they dip low on the daily fluctuations of the market.

Thanks for the great write up. Liked the analysis on treasuries and the deep dive into the US/global economy since WWII.

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