Swipe Left on Market Narratives: Why Investors Need to Stay Nimble
Know who is selling you what
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Markets moved 2,000 points this week. Here’s why that doesn’t mean what you think—and what to do about it.
This Week’s Markets: A Love-Hate Relationship with the Narrative
Investors saw the full emotional spectrum play out this week.
On Monday, markets plunged. By Wednesday, they soared. On Thursday, they steadied. The trigger? Headlines, not fundamentals.
President Trump called Fed Chair Jerome Powell a “loser” and “Mr. Too Late.” The Dow dropped 970 points. Gold hit new highs. Safe havens surged. Then, within 48 hours, Trump changed his tone: Powell’s job was safe. China trade talks were “nice.” Tariffs might be coming down. Markets rallied hard. Gold sold off.
If this feels like whiplash, it’s because it is. And it’s not new.
Narratives Don’t Lead—They Follow
Here’s the thing: markets don’t marry narratives. Neither should you.
Each week, there’s a new storyline:
Sell America—dump bonds, stocks, the dollar.
Buy gold—it’s a hedge against the end of the world.
Trump is torching global alliances.
Tariffs are freezing supply chains.
Sometimes these are true. Sometimes they’re noise. Always, they’re fleeting.
Markets digest narratives like memes—they go viral, then fade. Being early to abandon a narrative is often more profitable than sticking around for its downfall.
What Just Happened (And What Didn’t)
Let’s look at this week in numbers:
Monday:
Dow down ~970 pts
S&P 500 down ~2.4%
Nasdaq down ~2.6%
USD drops to 3-year low
Gold spikes to an all-time-high
Tuesday:
Dow +1,000 pts
S&P and Nasdaq rebound nearly 3%
Treasury hints at a China trade thaw
Wednesday:
Trump reassures: Fed Chair stays, tariffs may fall
Gold sells off ~3%
Silver rallies sharply
Thursday:
Stocks rallied for a third day in a row—the last time that happened was March 26th
Silver eased a little, and gold continued up
Credit spreads narrowed
Overall, Trump mainly focused on foreign policy and left the markets alone
This isn’t about fundamentals. It’s narrative whiplash. And it’s dominating the price action.
Gold Retreats. Silver Rises. Here’s Why.
As equities crumbled, gold absorbed the fear. But once the narrative turned, so did capital flows. Investors hiding out in gold used the rally to take profits and, when stocks rebounded, used those profits to buy equities.
Silver, often the neglected sibling, is getting more attention:
Half its value is tied to industrial demand
A tariff rollback would increase demand
Silver remains historically undervalued vs. gold
Silver’s smaller market cap also means it reacts faster to shifts in supply and demand.
Wall Street Isn’t Buying It
Since April 8, the bond market has been challenging the Trump narrative. And now, Wall Street is retaking the reins.
Yes, the President can tweet. But the Fed sets policy. And the market is watching Powell, not the press briefings.
Why Are Markets Fighting Back?
Policy Uncertainty – Businesses can’t plan. Markets can’t price.
Fed Independence – If you aim at Powell, don’t miss.
Volatility Surge – Spiking VIX = investor doubt.
Capital Rotation – Money is flowing fast—winners are temporary.
Trump vs. Powell: Act II
This isn’t the first round.
December 2018: Powell hikes. Trump lashes out. Market drops.
2019: Fed cuts four times. S&P ends up +29%.
March 2020: Pandemic panic (-34%), then Fed stimulus. S&P up +18%.
Each time, the narrative flipped. Each time, the market moved before the story played out.
Investing in a Post-Narrative World
Want to survive? Here’s your playbook:
Stay flexible – Agility > conviction
Favor data over drama – Narrative is noise
Diversify – Don’t anchor to one asset class
Buy panic, sell hype – Contrarian wins
History is helpful, not predictive – Rhymes, not repeats
Find a source you trust and stick to it—I recommend one below.
In The Markets—Chart to Watch
The S&P 500 bottomed near ~4,985—a rare three-standard-deviation move. Technicians are now watching the “death cross”: when the 50-day MA slips below the 200-day MA.
It could mean more downside. Or it could be the beginning of a reversal. Either way, use rallies to trim risk and rebalance.
Bottom Line
Don’t fall in love with the narrative. Swipe left when the story stops serving you.
Markets aren’t loyal to one version of reality, and neither should your portfolio.
What’s Next/What To Follow
For those looking for a great perspective on the macro picture and a very reasonably priced framework for structuring their investments, Darius Dale is the man. I subscribe to his service and follow his KISS framework. The Value/Price relationship is outstanding.
If you want to get some great insights into the whole macro spectrum—including Bitcoin—there is no better place to go than this brilliant conversation between Natalie Brunell and Lyn Alden.
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Thanks Phil!
Great article Neil!