MacroMashup

MacroMashup

Liquidity Crunch, Fiscal Dominance, and Humanity’s Last Invention

Markets are straining, deficits are dictating monetary policy, automation is gutting labor, and AI is forcing a new energy regime. The Fourth Turning keeps rolling.

Neil Winward's avatar
Neil Winward
Nov 14, 2025
∙ Paid

This week, global macro stopped whispering and started shouting.

Liquidity is tightening, repo markets are wobbling, and the Fed’s plumbing is starting to creak under the weight of a $2T annual deficit. Meanwhile:

  • Robotaxis slash labor costs by 80%

  • Amazon prepares for a 75% workforce reduction

  • UBI enters mainstream policy debate

  • Bitcoin falters while gold steals the narrative

  • COP 30 quietly concedes to fossil-fueled AI

  • The shutdown’s aftershocks hit the real economy

  • AGI risk moves from sci-fi to macro driver

Inside the full MacroMashup:

➡ Liquidity stress and the return of fiscal dominance
➡ Repo strain and the Fed’s SRF going full throttle
➡ Automation’s labor shock + the inevitability of UBI
➡ Bitcoin’s narrative crisis vs. gold’s resurgence
➡ COP 30, natural gas, and the AI-energy paradox
➡ The post-shutdown macro damage
➡ The AI Rubicon: AGI, geopolitics, power grids, and capital

This is the busiest macro week of Q4—and the most consequential.

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