The Energy Reset: How Commodities Will Reshape Portfolios in 2026

AI may be the narrative of the decade, but energy is the constraint that will price the decade. Here’s what smart investors need to understand before 2026 hits.

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If 2024–2025 were about AI hype, 2026 will be about energy reality.

Every investor I talk to feels the same tension:

Tech is soaring. Rates are sticky. The dollar is strong. Inflation feels “stable”… but not stable enough. And beneath the surface, commodities have quietly tightened in a way most people aren’t paying attention to.

2026 will be the year energy resets — not because of panic or politics, but because fundamentals finally collide with underinvestment, geopolitics, and rising global demand. This article breaks down the supply squeeze, the structural shifts, and the best-positioned assets investors should understand now.

The Supply Squeeze Nobody Wants to Talk About

For the last decade, governments pushed for decarbonization while investors pushed for buybacks. Result?

Chronic underinvestment in oil, gas, metals, and grid infrastructure.

• Capex in fossil fuels is still 40% below 2014 levels.

• Grid expansion hasn’t kept up with electrification demand.

• Copper, nickel, and lithium projects are delayed or abandoned.

At some point, ESG narratives collide with math.

2026 is that point.

Geopolitics Is Now a Permanent Risk Premium

We’ve entered a world where “energy security” has replaced “cheap energy” as the priority.

• Middle East instability

• US–China rivalry

• Shipping routing risks

• Critical mineral chokepoints

Investors still model commodities like we’re in 2015.

But the 2026 world is multipolar, fragmented, and unstable. That’s bullish for scarcity assets.

The next section breaks down:

• The four asset classes most likely to outperform in 2026

• The exact energy subsectors we believe are structurally undervalued

• A portfolio-weighting framework for macro investors

• Our forward-looking thesis on LNG, uranium, copper, and clean hydrogen

• Where we see asymmetric opportunities before they price in

If you’re serious about making 2026 your most informed investing year yet, upgrade to Fearless Investor Premium to unlock the rest.

A Rare 2.5x Clean-Energy Opportunity You Shouldn’t Miss

If you want to see where these macro signals are actually materializing on the ground, we just published a new MacroMashup deep dive on a giga-scale, multi-fuel energy–compute project that showcases the architecture behind a potential 2.5x clean-energy opportunity. It’s one of the most concrete examples yet of how the energy–compute transition is creating real, investable structures—not narratives. You can read the full breakdown (including the investor notes) below. It’s available to paid subscribers, but you can unlock it instantly with a 7-day free trial.

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