Breaking Down JD Vance's 'No More Bailouts' Message for Europe
The Atlantic Gets Wider in More Ways Than One
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When You Accidentally CC the Enemy on National Security Chat
Ever hit “reply all” and instantly regretted it? National Security Advisor Mike Waltz just lived the nightmare—only worse. While setting up a Signal chat with the Principals Committee to discuss bombing the Houthis, he accidentally included… Jeffrey Goldberg, editor-in-chief of The Atlantic.
Here's what went down:
The chat, titled Houthi PC small group, was full of routine discussion about an upcoming strike.
Vice President J.D. Vance said, “I just hate bailing Europe out again." referencing how 40% of Suez Canal trade benefits Europe vs. only 3% for the U.S.
Vance briefly hesitated about the operation—but quickly toed the line when Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller reminded him this was the President’s call.
The National Security Council confirmed the chat’s authenticity and has launched an investigation into how Goldberg ended up in the thread.
Who’s Freeloading Here?
The link below to David Murrin’s Trump 14: THE NOT SO REAL VALUE OF AMERICAN AID TO UKRAINE is paywalled. (You can click the image to learn how to unlock it.)
The bottom line is that the claim of $66.5 billion of aid supplied by the U.S. is likely overstated by $25-30 billion.
It’s still a lot, but substantially less than the $500 billion Trump claims the U.S. needs to recoup from the minerals deal with Ukraine. Who is freeloading here?
The ‘freeloading’ mindset infuses the entire tariff regime envisaged by Trump to rebalance global trade equity.
When You Can’t Get Dollars Fast Enough - Markets don’t like political drama. Just ask Turkey
When Istanbul’s mayor, Ekrem Imamoğlu, was arrested on March 19—seen widely as Erdogan removing a rival ahead of elections—the Turkish Lira tanked.
The Central Bank of Turkey had limited access to foreign currency, thanks to tighter rules and exhausted credit lines.
To stop the bleeding, they spent $10–12B that day, and another $13–15B in the following three days.
This matters because U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is now floating the idea of linking USD swap lines to whether countries are buying U.S. treasuries—possibly even backed by gold.
If you want a reminder of how essential those swap lines are during crises, just look at this Lira chart. The spike is the Lira tanking vs. the USD.
Just another example of politics intruding on the economy…
Report Card on Net Zero
President Trump posted on social media that he has authorized his administration to ramp up energy production using “BEAUTIFUL, CLEAN COAL” and plans to reopen “hundreds” of coal-fired power plants.
He criticized past environmental policies as detrimental to U.S. energy independence and competitiveness with countries like China.
In the first two months of 2025, U.S. power producers emitted over 304 million metric tons of CO2, marking the highest emissions since 2019—a 9% increase compared to early 2024. This rise was driven by a 21% increase in coal-fired electricity generation as utilities shifted away from natural gas due to higher prices.
It may seem like a shift, but the U.S. still has a long way to go before it keeps pace with China and India. According to the International Energy Authority’s (IEA) recently released Global Energy Review 2025, China and India account for more than 70% of global coal use.
The chart below clearly shows China is responsible for 80% of global coal plant construction. They have done a fantastic job of gaslighting the world into believing they are the leader in renewable energy while turning themselves into the world’s manufacturing hub with fossil fuel.
China increased its electricity use by 1.257TWh between 2022 and 2024 and is projected to grow by ~6% annually through 2027.
According to the IEA,
In China, industry consumes approximately 60% of all electricity, much higher than in any other country in the world (32% on average in the OECD). Over the three-year period from 2022 to 2024, 48% of the increase in Chinese electricity demand came from the industry sector. The manufacturing of PV modules, batteries, and EVs, excluding the processing of associated materials, are estimated to have consumed around 320 TWh of electricity in 2024...which rose by more than 230 TWh over 2022-2024. During this period, new energy products made up nearly 35% of the increase in industrial electricity demand and 16% of the growth in total electricity use across China. Including the numerous electricity-intensive upstream processes associated with these products that take place in China, such as the refining and processing of the related materials, can further boost these numbers.
India is a long way behind China in coal plant construction, but its electricity use is growing by a similar amount—7% in 2024. Coal-based generation accounts for ~74% of this total.
Net zero efforts in the rest of the world are being overwhelmed by China and India.
Another fun net zero fact: the Social Security Trust Fund will be depleted by 2033. At this point, the only funding source for Social Security benefits will be payroll taxes—they will cover 76% of benefits. So, absent reforms, a pay cut for beneficiaries looks likely. Go, DOGE!
In The Markets
Volatility is down
Major indices are flat-ish
Precious metals have had a more volatile week
BTC has recovered, and credit spreads have tightened a bit
Market Closing 3-26-25
Markets have struggled to navigate the downdraft of the past three weeks and find a bottom from which to trade into positive territory.
There is always a chorus of macroeconomic doom-scrollers. They are fascinating, and some are entirely credible.
@Asymmetry06 has a profile self-describing as “Ex-CEO of a large listed company, ex-policy/tech, emerging markets expert. We’re in a phase transition-let’s learn and share. Not activist or advisor.” (See below for link).
What’s Next/What To Follow?
Click on the image below for @asymmetry06’s quick take on the U.S. economy (#macrodoomscrolling)
produces excellent work on all things energy
David Murrin’s take on what the U.S. aid to Ukraine is worth - click on the image to find out more. There is a paywall, but it’s worth a look…
The Atlantic Article on Signal Exchange (click on banner below)
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